Rates ·
Higher rates, firmer Bakersfield retail
The Fed's target range is 3.75%–4.00% after a September hike, and the 10-year Treasury was 5.21% on Oct 13. Bakersfield retail vacancy fell to 5.20% in Q2 2026.
On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12–0 to raise the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, saying inflation remains elevated. The effective federal funds rate was 3.88% on October 13.
The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.21% on October 13, according to the Federal Reserve's H.15 release. Long-term rates feed directly into financing costs for retail, pad, and land purchases, so expect lenders and buyers to keep underwriting conservatively.
Locally, Lee & Associates' Q2 2026 Bakersfield retail report shows vacancy at 5.20%, down from 6.10% in Q3 2025, with trailing 12-month net absorption back in positive territory at 344,991 SF. Average NNN asking rent was $20.26/SF and the average cap rate 6.80%. The report credits new Target stores for part of the gain, with leasing concentrated among smaller-format users such as fitness, discount, and healthcare tenants.